Effects of travel restrictions
- Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., … & Viboud, C. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science.
Abstract: Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
- 03/17: [Nature] What China’s coronavirus response can teach the rest of the world
- 03/10: [Science] Does closing schools slow the spread of coronavirus? Past outbreaks provide clues
- Effects of massive gatherings: A paper published on Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
- [Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease] The cancellation of mass gatherings (MGs)? Decision making in the time of COVID-19
- Effects of social distancing: A paper published on The Lancet Public Health ソーシャル ディスタンシング の重要性
- New MIT machine learning model shows relaxing lockdowns will spike COVID-19 cases
HOWEVER: How much have we learned from history and lessons from other countries?
- March 30, 2020: New York Post – Crowds ignore social distancing rules to watch USNS Comfort
- 5 Ways the U.S. Botched the Response to COVID-19
- Widespread testing was delayed and remains inadequate
- The U.S. was unable to contain the spread of the virus
- The country lacks essential supplies and equipment
- Messaging on the virus has been inconsistent and inaccurate
- Federal and state agencies failed to coordinate their efforts
- 03/23: Here’s everything the federal government has done to limit the economic destruction of coronavirus
- Munk Debates: We’re making high-stakes COVID-19 decisions without reliable data
- Munk Debates: Better to take harsh COVID-19 measures than gamble on unproven strategies
新型コロナウイルス 外出禁止を無視した人に対する各国の対応は… インドはムチ打ちや腕立て伏せの刑、台湾は罰金及び実名公開、スペイン：外出申請アプリ開発、違反の場合、大きな罰金を科すいろいろなソースから
- Importance of scientific information: [The Lancet] COVID-19: fighting panic with information
- Prof. Shinya Yamanaka’s COVID-19 website (The 2012 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine): HERE (only in Japanese: 山中伸弥教授による新型コロナウイルス情報発信 )
- According to CNN Business: “Bill Gates: State-by-state shutdown won’t work. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation co-founder Bill Gates says that the US should shutdown the entire country for a short period of time to control the spread of the coronavirus and predicts that the number of cases will peak in late April.”
- April 10, 2020: Apple, Google set to use phones as coronavirus tracking devices
- The Wall Street Journal COVID-19 Free Resources: here
- BBC: What should I do now?
- Tracking the Global Response to COVID-19
- How COVID-19 affects inequality in Africa
- DEBATE «Fighting COVID 19 – Verfassungsblog
- Debate: How Beijing is trying to save face in the global fight against Covid-19
- COVID-19 Munk Debates: here
- European coordinated response to the COVID-19 outbreak (debate)
You can find more debates by searching “debates about measures against COVID-19” from Google.
Mar 17, 2020 Nature: Coronavirus: three things all governments and their science advisers must do now
Measures from a Perspective of Social and Behavioral Change
- (Compass) COVID-19: Resources for Social and Behavior Change: here
Lessons from History
- [Global Health Journal] What we have learnt from the SARS epdemics in mainland China?