以下のCOVID-19に関する提案は、張峻屹教授が2020年4月初めごろから準備されたものである。
(詳細：ここ )
Urgent Recommendations for Transport Policies under the COVID-19 Pandemic (Details: ここ)
DIRECT approach for pandemics, post-pandemic resilient and sustainable development, disasters and crises, etc.
The DIRECT approach includes six steps: (1) Detect, (2) Inform/Intervene, (3) React, (4) Enlighten/Enforce/Evaluate, (5) Collaborate, and (6) Transfer. The DIRECT approach is developed from research on how to control the COVID-19 pandemic and how to achieve post-pandemic recovery. Controlling the current pandemic and promoting resilient and sustainable development in the post-pandemic era requires transformative thinking. DIRECT is an integrated approach that emphasizes policy making and implementation process management, not only for solving problems during the pandemic, but also addressing post-pandemic resilience and sustainable development. In theory, this approach can also be applied to disasters and crises, etc. An illustration of this approach and its application to carbon reduction in the transport sector can be found: ここ.
Detect: Early, quick and widespread detection of infected persons and risky behaviors (e.g., going to crowded spaces or traveling to endemic areas) is crucial to control the spread of COVID-19. In this regard, smart technologies can be used to effectively and efficiently detect spatiotemporal trajectories of activity-travel behaviors of infected and susceptible persons. Technologically, it is challenging to use various smart technologies. Using smart technologies also needs to address ethical and legal challenges, such as preserving individual privacy while maintaining the usefulness of data for public access. Methodologically, it is necessary to capture all possible behaviors that are deemed to be risky. In this regard, it is crucial to automatically generate seamless spatiotemporal trajectories of activity-travel behaviors (based on the activity-based approach and the life-oriented approach (Zhang, 2017)) in order to avoid any serious memory issues in reporting behaviors based on paper-pencil surveys. Similarly, it is also important to detect unsustainable behaviors (e.g., excessive use of cars, excessive consumption of energy) to effectively promote post-pandemic sustainable development.
Inform/Intervene: There are two types of decision-making: informed and uninformed. People may modify their risky and unsustainable behaviors by themselves, without any external interventions. This is called uninformed decision-making. Because there are so many unknowns and uncertainties about pandemics and sustainable development, people need to be informed about how they could “improve” their decisions with a (more) sustainable outcome. In other words, informed decision-making is required. All the above-detected risks and risky behaviors as well as unsustainable behaviors should be communicated to the public and various stakeholders. Informed decision-making via interventions needs to be better supported by effective communications between policymakers and informed subjects (e.g., individuals, firms).
React: Whether interventions are effective or not depends on whether people react or respond in an expected way. Informed decision-making aims to change people’s behaviors. Behavioral changes are affected by various factors, such as awareness and attitudes, norms, beliefs, perceived behavior control, and habits, as suggested by socio-psychological theories. Successful interventions require an innovative framework to comprehensively identify the key socio-psychological factors that influence risky and unsustainable habits of lifestyles, business styles, and organizational styles, etc. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that a variety of behaviors are coupled, with implications for resilience and sustainable development. This suggests that behavioral interventions need to address behavioral interactions at the individual, community, and larger scales.
Enforce/Enlighten/Evaluate: People’s decisions are context-dependent and change over time. Even though an expected change (reaction) is observed, it may not last for a sufficiently long period. If a behavior cannot occur in an expected way, even via various “soft” interventions, it may need to be enforced using legal and/or economic instruments. To make behavioral changes more sustainable, voluntary behavioral changes which encourage the individual to select the more “enlightened” option (from a sustainability perspective) should be highlighted. Whether enforced/enlightened behavioral changes bring expected outcomes needs to be properly evaluated. Evaluation is required at each step of the DIRECT approach, based on scientifically sound evidence. Willingness and acceptance, preparedness and capacity, effectiveness and efficiency, goal orientation and benchmarking, costs and benefits, and so on, should be fully reflected in the evaluation process.
Collaborate: All stakeholders should collaborate to control the current COVID-19 pandemic and better manage post-pandemic sustainable development. Different governmental sectors need to collaborate to overcome sectoral barriers. The public sector needs collaboration/cooperation with the private sector to enhance policymaking efficiency and effectiveness – understanding the economic and social impact of policy – while the private sector needs collaboration/cooperation with the public sector to avoid market failures. Communities also need to be involved in order to successfully implement policy measures. People’s pro-social attitudes, norms, and beliefs are the foundation of collaboration and cooperation. Such socio-psychological factors also play key roles in the aforementioned behavioral changes related to reactions.
Transfer: Both successful and unsuccessful experiences during the pandemic must be transferred to the post-pandemic sustainable (community) development. Experiences of the post-pandemic sustainable (community) development in one target area may be transferred to other areas, if appropriate. For the current pandemic, various lessons could have been better learned from history. However, the long-lasting continuing growth of infections worldwide indicates that lessons from the previous pandemics have not been effectively transferred to current pandemic practices. It is also true in the case of many sustainable development policies. Transferability of policymaking and scientific insights is indispensable, not only to achieve policy goals but also to advance science.
COVID-19が交通部門に与える影響を軽減するためのPASSアプローチ
PASSアプローチは、COVID-19期間中とポストCOVID-19の交通政策・対策を立案するための総合的な方法論である。
Zhang, J. (2020) Transport policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats: A PASS approach, Transport Policy, 99, 405-418. (Open Access)
[P] What’s most important is to prepare well for public health crises. Guidelines, contingency plans, and economic and institutional measures should be made by transport operators and governments before pandemics occur, while transport users should also be well informed and make similar preparations: e.g., to form anti-virus lifestyle and habits. When a pandemic occurs, it is first necessary to protect both transport users and service providers, based on the above preparations. This further includes at least two steps: before the pandemic starts in a country/region and before the pandemic starts in a city/town of the country/region. Even for the current COVID-19 pandemic, people have suffered from various fake and unreliable information about the virus, its impacts, and its countermeasures. Therefore, it is important and necessary to provide reliable and timely information, via organizations in charge of the management of such information.
[A] At early stages of pandemics, trip makers need to avoid visiting crowded places and using crowded public transport as much as possible. Transport operators need to avoid operating crowded vehicles and platforms. Governments are required to avoid making unstable policy decisions and providing inconsistent information. Government officers need to avoid behaving against their instructions to the general public (e.g., do not wear masks even though the general public are requested to wear them). For this, government officers’ and other decision makers’ behaviors under pandemics must be enforced, for example, via making guidelines regarding behaviors (what people should and should not do) with strict punishment rules for violations. Trip makers need to adjust their activity schedules to reduce infection risk. Transport operators need to adjust their operation tasks and schedules. Governments need to make adjustments across governmental departments and across sectors for taking and implementing more effective policy measures. Needless to say, the prepared measures may also need adjustments, depending on whether and how much the new virus behaves in accordance with expectations.
[S] As the pandemic progresses, people who have to make trips need to shift their trip timings (e.g., staggered working hours) or modes (e.g., shift from public transport to other modes) to reduce infection risks. At the same time, trip makers need to pay sufficient attention to space sharing with others. Because of the need for the above avoidance, adjustment, and shift, people need to think about sharing their job responsibilities with others for preparing for the next sets of actions. To make the protection measures work effectively, transport users need to share their health information. Transport operators need to shift to the operation system under pandemics based on prepared measures (guidelines and contingency plans). Governments need to shift to pandemic-focused governance measures, such as restrictions on mobility and collection of private health information. Transport operators should restrict space sharing. Different operators may need to share their operation resources, for example, in case of the absence of infected staff. Governments need to promote shared economy under pandemics, for example, shared mobility (e.g., use taxi to deliver goods), by deregulating or temporarily amending laws. Under such deregulated systems, transit operators may use their unoccupied vehicles to transport goods.
[S] When the pandemic becomes more serious, people have to stop or substitute activities involving trips. Governments need to make policies and regulations that allow or force transport operators to stop service operation. Based on this, transport operators judge whether or not to stop operation of their services or follow the enforcement. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen so many political complaints and bickering, which waste valuable time and detract attention from efforts to fight the pandemic. Such political arguments are useless and therefore must be stopped. Governments need to substitute face-to-face governmental procedures with online procedures. Substitution between transport modes may also be necessary.
The PASS approach targets transport users and service providers, as well as governments. While this PASS approach is crucial and important for successful transport measures against pandemics, its implementation may bring about various negative impacts on these groups and possibly the whole society. To address this, proper protection measures (e.g., economic and institutional measures) should be taken by governments and transport operators.
Thus, this PASS approach targets transport users and service providers as well as governments. The four elements ‘P’, ‘A’, ‘S’, and ‘S’ correspond to different situations of the pandemic. In the above paper [Zhang, J. (2020)], there is a table summarizing examples of policy measures against COVID-19 in the transport sector, which the Japanese version is shown here.
for surviving COVID-19
Junyi Zhang (2021) People’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic during its early stages and factors affecting those responses. Nature – Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8: 37, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00720-1 (Open Access)
Zhang, Junyi, How Did People Respond to the Covid-19 Pandemic During its Early Stage? A Case Study in Japan (May 7, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3595063
COVID-19パンデミックにおいて様々な行動変容が起こっている。このパンデミックが過ぎた後、これらの行動変容の一部も続くと考えられるが、新たな行動変容も起こりうる。いずれにしても、持続可能な発展に有益な行動変容を推進すべきである。
It is unknown at all how long we will have to stay at home for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Life has to go on, however. The economy here and there will be gradually re-opened; however, it is difficult to expect a full-scale re-opening. For a while, we have to live together with this virus. To avoid/mitigate the infection risk, social distancing has to be better practiced. Therefore, we have to re-think what kinds of essential needs in life [L] we have to meet and accordingly to re-design our daily life schedule. Based on the re-designed life schedule, we have to further carefully think about what kinds of out-of-home or out-of-office activities [A] we have to perform, at what kinds of places with sufficient space [S], and at what kind of timing [TING] (both duration and timing: to perform activities as shorter as possible and to shift departure timing). In other words, 民間部門は将来の公衆衛生上の脅威やその他の壊滅的な出来事の発生に備えるため、ビジネススタイルを変える必要がある。政府はCOVID-19パンデミックやその他の歴史的出来事からより多くの教訓を真剣に学び、科学的証拠に基づく緊急時対応計画を準備する必要がある。
, because after experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, people may dramatically change their lifestyles by paying more attention to the environment. More and more people may re-think about their needs in life [L] for arranging daily activities [A] at proper space [S] and at proper timing [TING]. For example, if more and more people recognize that meanings of life and happiness are not necessarily linked with the continuous pursuit of money and resource-intensive consumption, they may start to redefine what they actually need in life [L]. If talking with a friend at home via WhatsApp or WeChat can meet a higher-order need that was used to be met by taking a car to visit a plaza in the city center, then online talking becomes an environmentally-friendly activity [A]. If neighborhood spaces [S] are sufficiently attractive, people may not need to often visit a suburban shopping center by car. If staggered working hours [TING] can be widely introduced, peak-hour traffic congestion will be significantly mitigated. More research efforts should be made from such a LASTING perspective.
［日本］専門家会議「新しい生活様式」の実践例：LASTアプローチによる検証
under preparation
［緊急提言］活動遂行と移動の視点からみた新型コロナウイルスの感染を予防・軽減する方法とは？
張峻屹、2020年4月7日
[注意：以下の対策はロックダウンの都市・場所には適用しないこと]
- 最も良い方法：外出しないこと。これによって物理的空間におけるほかの人との接触をなくすことができる。
- むろん、生計のために外出しないといけない方々には適用できない。
- 次善方法：生活ニーズを満たすために移動しないといけない場合、移動頻度を減らすこと。これによって、物理空間におけるほかの人との接触を減らすことができる。
- ３番目に良い方法：もしも毎日も移動しないといけないとなると、徒歩・自転車・車・自動二輪車による移動を薦めるしかない。少なくとも、この方法の場合、移動中に他人との接触はない。ただし、他人との同乗を避けるべきである。
- 車を多く使うことで、交通渋滞や環境問題を悪化させるという欠点はある。この負の効果は、外出率の低下によって取り消されるのであろう。
- 4番目に良い方法：公共交通で移動しないといけない人々のために、予約制公共交通サービスを用意すること。このような予約を取り入れることで、総量規制を行うことができる。これによって、公共交通車両内での接触距離を広げることができる。
- 現在のスマートテクノロジーの開発状況をみると、この予約制公共交通サービスは実行可能である。
- 最悪の方法：いうまでもなく、満員の公共交通を利用すること。
- 公共交通を使わないといけない人はいる。このため、車両ごとの利用者数を制限するか（時間帯別需要の調整が必要）、車両数を増やすことが必須である。
- 最も効果的な方法は、すぐに、オンライン予約のみの乗車を可能にする公共サービスの導入である。（１）利用者：事前に利用したい公共サービスを予約する；（２）事業者：予約に応じて、車両の需要をコントロールして輸送サービスを提供する；（３）このオンラインサービスを通じて、徐々に通常の公共交通利用をこのオンラインサービスへと誘導する。
- さらに、
- 例えば、ある人が大人数の集まりに行く場合、徒歩・自転車・車・自動二輪車を使って移動中のリスクはないが、活動先でのリスクは高くなる。この場合、結果的に、活動遂行と移動の全過程において、感染リストは高い。つまり、交通の視点から新型コロナウイルス感染を防止・軽減するため、移動の本源的需要である活動とセットで対策を考えないといけない。
- one more example: if a person has to work at a factory and the factory’s working areas are large enough to guarantee sufficient social distances between workers and ventilation, the factory may provide a tentative rest area for their workers’ sleeping at night without traveling from and returning back to homes.
- 備えあれば憂いなし
- 歩行と自転車の利用は健康によいと言われている。このような観点から、歩行と自転車の利用をもたらす（誘発する）交通計画は新型コロナウイルス感染を予防したり、その拡大を軽減したりすることができる。
- 健康的なライフスタイルを有する人は歩行と自転車利用をより好む可能性が高い。健康的なライフスタイルを形成するために、様々な生活選択の複雑な意思決定プロセスが関わる。このようなライフスタイルを実現するために、生活指向型アプローチに基づく政策立案が推進されるべき。このような政策は多くの部門の利害関係者を巻き込むことが求められる。
- スマートテクノロジーの利用は、移動なしで人々の様々な生活ニーズを満たすことが可能である：テレワーク、オンラインショッピング、インライン注文によるフードデリバリ、オンライン学習、オンライン医療など。これらの技術はすでに実用化されており、その幅広い利用を推進すべき。
- 交通とリンクした諸側面を十分に留意しないといけない。
- 人数が多くなれば社会的な接触も多くなる。不幸なことに、世界中の大都市の急速な発展が新型コロナウイルス感染拡大を手助けしたことは誰も否定できないであろう。こういう意味において、先進国・途上国を問わず大都市中心の都市化を真剣に見直すべき。その代わりに、地方都市の発展を推し進めるべき。したがって、大都市から地方都市への人口移動を促す公共政策は新型コロナウイルスのような公衆衛生上の脅威の影響を軽減することができると期待される。
COIVD-19感染を防止し、その拡大を抑えるための効果的な交通対策を立案するために
張峻屹、2020年4月7日
- 公衆衛生専門家はCOVID-19感染拡大の異なる段階に応じて、感染拡大を抑えるためにどれだけの社会的な接触をへらさないといけないかに関する科学的なエビデンスを提供すべき。このために、ロバストで信頼性の高い予測が求められる。これは容易なことではないが、やらないといけない。少なくとも一定の高い信頼水準を有する間隔推定値を与えることが必要である。もう１つ重要なことは、乗車密度ごとの感染リスクを予測すべき。このような予測がなければ、交通政策立案者は交通量をどれだけ減らさないといけないかを明らかにすることができず、その結果、効果的な対策による自発的な行動変容が期待できないであろう。一方、公共衛生専門家からのインプットを受けて、交通専門家はCOVID-19が乗客流量における感染の伝播リスクを予測しないといけない。このような連携がなければ、公共的な受容性の高い効果的な交通対策の立案は困難であろう。このようなことはできなければ、COVID-19の感染拡大を抑制するために、まちのロックダウンをやる以外方法はないはずである。
- 現在、公衆衛生専門家は第一線で頑張っている。これは非常に素晴らしいことである。しかし、中央政府の専門家会議に、交通を含むほかの分野の専門家を入れていないことは大変不可解である。様々な視点から感染拡大のカーブを平らにするための対策が求められているなかで、交通、産業、教育など様々な分野の専門家は一堂して議論しないと、場当たり的な対策がなされていると批判されても、反論のしようがない。
- もちろん、公共交通サービスを減らすかどうか、どの程度減らすかは、サービス運用スタッフが感染されたかどうか、どの程度感染されたかによって決定されるべきである。需要に応じて減便すると言及する鉄道事業者はあるようであるが、ここで市場原理で運用を行うのは決してよくない。国と連携し、適切な補償制度のもとで、社会的な距離を保てるような運用を行うべきである。
外出を代替する対策
張峻屹、2020年4月7日
- 外出なしの対策
- 自宅勤務・学習：これは可能であれば、感染を防ぐベストな方法である。むろん、それなりの欠点はある（例えば、家に長時間にいることから来る孤独さ、人との相互作用から生まれる生産性の低下、対面コミュニケーションから生まれるビジネスチャンスの損失、自宅勤務・学習とほかの家事とのコンフリクトなど）
- 店に行く代わりに、オンラインショッピングで代替する
- 外食の代わりにフードデリバリサービスを頼む
- 対面会議の代わりにオンライン会議を行う
- パーティーを通じてのソーシャルネットワーキングの代わりにオンラインにてソーシャルネットワーキングを行う
- 活動の延期による対策
- 観光、余暇やその他の自由活動を、パンデミックが過ぎた後に延期する
- 移動回数を減らす対策
- 新鮮な食品を買うため、人々は当該の買物をするために頻度高く店に行く傾向があるが、このようなパンデミックの場合、例えば、必要な食品をまとめ買いすることで、買物回数を減らす。
- 移動距離を減らす対策
- 活動目的地を変更することで、同じ活動を短く距離の移動で行うことが可能である。
- 社会的接触を少なくする対策
- 社会的接触を減らすことは、特にビジネスの世界ではネガティブな影響がかなり大きい。しかし、スマートテクノロジーの浸透によって対面接触を少なくしても、同様なクオリティを有する社会的接触の効果が期待できる。